While most exit polls at the national level on Saturday predicted that the BJP would finally open its account in Kerala in Lok Sabha elections, with some even going on to say the party would get up to three seats, a local exit poll that came out on Sunday said it would not win any of the 20 constituencies in the southern state. The Manorama News-VMR exit poll said the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) would win 16-18 seats, and the state-ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front would emerge victorious in two to four seats, slightly bettering. its tally of one seat in the Lok Sabha elections of 2019.
As for vote percentage, the exit poll said the UDF would secure 42.06 per cent votes, the LDF 35.09 per cent and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) 18.64 per cent. Both the UDF and the LDF are projected to lose their vote share – by 4.76 per cent and 0.64 per cent, respectively.
Although this exit poll concurs with the others that came before it assuming that the NDA would raise its vote share in Kerala, the margin of 3.7 percent is much lower than what they had predicted. Some other exit polls had predicted that the BJP would increase its vote share by around 12 percentage points to 27 percent.
A silver lining for the BJP, as per this exit poll, is that it is tipped to come second in two constituencies — Thiruvananthapuram and Pathanamthitta. In Thiruvananthapuram, Union minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar is projected to poll 35.35 percent of the votes to come second to three-time sitting MP Shashi Tharoor, who will retain the seat with 37.86 percent of the votes. According to the exit poll, the LDF candidate Pannyan Raveendran is expected to come third with 25.58 votes.
As for Pathanamthitta, former Union minister AK Antony’s son Anil Antony, a Congress turncoat, is set to come second. The exit poll said Anil would get 32.17 percent of votes, as opposed to another three-time sitting MP, Anto Anonty, who is predicted to get 36.53 percent of votes. Former Kerala minister Thomas Isaac of the CPI(M) will finish third with 27.7 percent votes.
If the exit poll holds true, the biggest setback for the BJP is the third-place finish of its star candidate Suresh Gopi in Thrissur. The UDF will retain its seat through K Muraleedharan (37.53 per cent votes) while the CPI candidate VS Sunilkumar will finish at a distant second (30.72 per cent votes), as per the exit poll. Suresh Gopi, the Malayalam movie star contesting from Thrissur for the second time, is tipped to improve his vote share from 28.19 in 2019 to 29.55 this time.
According to the exit poll, the LDF is poised to reclaim the Palakkad seat from VK Sreekantan of the UDF, through A Vijayaraghavan. In the hotly-contested Vadakara seat, former Kerala minister KK Shailaja could pip the UDF’s Shafi Parambil, though with a tight margin. Alathoor and Kannur are two seats where the exit poll sits on the fence.
Rahul Gandhi, KC Venugopal to win
Rahul Gandhi will record another easy win from Wayanad, though his vote share will come down by 13.65 percent, the exit poll said. Rahul, who is also contesting from Rae Bareli in Uttar Pradesh, will get 50.99 percent of votes, while CPI candidate Annie Raja will get 35.48 percent votes. BJP Kerala president K Surendran will poll only 10.65 votes, it said.
In another major takeaway from the exit poll, All India Congress Committee (AICC) general secretary and Rahul Gandhi’s trusted aide KC Venugopal will wrest back the Alappuzha constituency for the UDF. Alappuzha was the only seat the LDF won in Kerala in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
What national exit polls said
Most other Exit polls predicted that the BJP would make significant gains in Kerala regarding seats and vote share.
The ABP C-Voter exit poll predicted 17 to 19 seats for the UDF and one to three seats for the BJP, with LDF reduced to zero. The India Today-Axis My India poll claimed that the UDF would get 17 to 18 seats, followed by the NDA (two to three seats) and the LDF (zero to one).
Times Now-ETG gave four seats to the LDF, 14 to 15 seats to the UDF, and one seat to the NDA. India TV-CNX’s projection suggested three to five seats for the LDF, 13 to 15 seats for the UDF, and one to three seats for the NDA.
The UDF will win 15 to 18 seats, according to the News18 exit poll, which also pegged the NDA seat tally at 1-3.