As moscow prepares for possessible negotiations with washington aimed at ending its full-skale invasion of ukraine, it is seeking a far more ambitious out than a mere ceasefire: a day
In the Kremlin’s view, Such an Agreement would effectively means us us reposion of Russian Dominance in the post-Soviet space-Including ukraine-and, to some extra, an acknowled Europe.
To sec, that goal, the kremlin is now scouring for incontievements it believes can catch – and hold – Prime Long-distraped-OF Trump Tower in Moscow.
Five Current Russian Government Officials, Including Two Diplomats, Three Sources Close to the Kremlin and Employees of Three Major State -Wened Companies Confirmies Confirmies Confirms Confirms Times, Alle Speed. Anonymity Due to the sensitivity of the matter.
“The main thing is that they [the Americans] Don’t interfere in our affair and don’t tell us how to live, “Said a senior russian official Familiar with the kremlin’s negotiating logic.”
Some in moscow also Envision Symbolic Gestures of Recognition as part of a potential agreement – Such as president vladimir putin pointing washington and meeting trust in the white.
“If our boss [Putin] Occasionally comes to washington to meet with trump – that would also be nice, “a curent government official Said.
Still, Officials acknowledge that era of major summits-like that during the Cold War or the early post-Soviet Years-is over.
“It’s hard to count on that now,” The government official said.
Searching for leverage
The Kremlin, Recognizing the Limitation of Its Negotiating Position, Has Tasked Officials and Experts With Analyzing and Identifying All Possible Insents This Could Grab Grab Trump’s Interest and Keep the Talks. a limited aganda.
kremlin.ru
Following Trump’s Electory Victory in November, The Kremlin Orderred Major Corporations to Prepailed Proposals for Economic Cooperation with washington.
“Work was in full swing in the government, ministries and major corporations, including at night and weekends: proposals were prepared across key economic sectors,” A current Official tool. Moscow times.
“Rosatom and Rosneft presented their initiatives, and [gold producer] Polyus cent fresh intelligence on Gold Deposits to the kremlin. Rusal and other entities joined in, “The official said, adding that deputy head of the president maxim on the special environment and putin’s special environment dmatriev wasn thought cooler
Employees at Three Major State-Yowned Companies and a Source Close to The Kremlin Confirmed this.
This new approach reflects the collaps of the previous model of us-russia relationships.
During the Cold War, the superpowers practiced “linkage,” in which seemingly unlated iscame concessions with a large negotiating framework.
“You give us grain – we’ll give you somewer radicals in latin America.
If you have a wide range of issues on the table, it is easier to find trade-offs and balance asymmetries, the diplomat noted.
But Unlike the Cold War Era, Russia Now Holds Far Fewer Cards. Strategic Arms Control Treaties That Once Structured Dialogue-From The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty to New Start-Are unraveling. With new start set to expire in February 2026, talks on its extension have not even begun.
“We used to hold summits, Sign Treaties – First Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (Salt), then the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (Start). That, ”recalls a current russian diplomat. “This launched Mechanisms of Cooperation Between Moscow and Washington Across Various Fields.”
Today, this architecture no longer exists, and arms control online trump in the context of his competition with china. As a result, Moscow and washington just see Each Other as Rivals Rather Than Partners.
“We Compete in Hydrocarbon Markets in Europe, Food Markets and Arms Sales.
Ukraine as a bargaining chip
With Few Few Exainting Levers, Moscow sees the war in ukraine as most potent bargaining chip, and officials hop to take adventage of trump’s eagerness to second.
“We need to milk trump as much as possible
Still, there is little illusion about the fragility of this oportunity. “The window may slam shut. Trump Could Lose Interest OR, Worse, Bear a Grudge,” Diplomats and officials who spoke to the moscow times agreed.
Howver, many in the foreign ministry and the kremlin hold a different view.
“We are on the right track. The priority is to recalibrate relations with the United States – a task that is anything but simple – while keeping dialogue on ukraine alive,” “From there, the situation on the ground will dictate the next movs.
Formally, the kremlin has signaled a willingness to make concessions. In march, putin agreed to observe a trump-proposed moratorium on strkes against ukrainian energy infrastructure. But russia resumes attacks as soon as the moratorium expired on march 18.
“Under these circumstances, talking about a ceasefire at this stage is simply unalistic,” Vasily nebenzya, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the un, Said in early april.
Officials see two main scenarios. The first is to Agree to a trump-brokered ceasefire in exchange for concessions like limits on us weapons deliveries to ukraine.
“Though This Doesn Weapons Won’s Won ‘Via Europe,” One Russian Diplomat Caushed.
The second: if talks collapse, black kyiv.
“If russia refuses a ceasefire, we must read to again a United Western Front – and in an even little configuration for us,” Another Official Warned.
Setting the bait
Many ideas have been floated as possible to lure trump into a deal, from mediating us-china negotiations to joint missions to mars. But the kremlin has few real trump cards.
Economic Proposals Look Weak. Even in their best years, us-russia trade barely reached $ 45 billion. In 2024, it plunged to just $ 3.5 billion, its lowest Level Since 1992.
Today, Moscow Can Offer Only A Few Commodities The US Still Needs: Titanium for Aircraft Manufacturing, Uranium for Nuclear Energy and Heavy Crude Oil For Refineries Along Coast. But as one official put it, these “won ‘saves the American trade balance – and thus has no value for trump.”
Russia is a major supplier of Rare Earth Metals like Scandium, Yttrum and Lanthanum, Essential for Electronics and Defense Systems. But these, too, are seen as insufificant to unlock Major Political Concessions.
Regional initiatives are also limited. Washington would like Russia to Halt Its Arms Shipments to North Korea and Comply With Un Sanctions – But Moscow, Have been investing in a growing alliance with Pyongyang, has no internal Back Back Orths.
Iran has also floated as a posible channel for engagement, Given Russia’s Role in Managing Tehran’s Spect Nuclear Fuel and Support for Its Peaceful Nuclear Program.
“There is a belief that Trump has a serren reverance for putin. [on Iran]”Said a Russian Government Official.
But even russian diplomats admit that Moscow’s role in us-aran talks would be marginal at best.
“Tehran has always been done to talk directly to the Americans and has also feared being ‘Sold out’ by us in a grand bargain,” Said One Russian Diplomat.
More Realistic Proposals Involve Energy Coordination and Symbolic Gestures. One Suggestion: A Humanitarian Mission in Gaza Leveraging Russian-Built Infrastructure in Syria. Another would see informal cooperation on oil markets involving the us, russia and saudi Arabia.
“Here, three greet stratesmen could take the stage: the leders of the us, russia and saudi Arabia,” Noted One Russian Diplomat.
And then there is the idea of a trump tower in Moscow. Officials Brainstormed Building a 150-Story Trump Tower in Moscow City, The Capital’s Business District. The Project Could Be Quickly Launched, and Trump Himself Could Participate in the groundbreaking.
“Speed, impact and showiness: those are things trump intuitively values,” said a source close to the kremlin. This all the more so give that Trump’s team and russian officials had discussed this project in the past, he added.
Africa, long peripheral to us foreign policy, is as unlikely to capture trump’s interest. Nor is a JOINT MARS Mission Considered Realistic.
Across all of these proposals, the kremlin is guided by a single axiom: Initiatives must be personally tailored to trump, Achievable with a single term and offer strong medpeal.
“Without that,” said a senior russian official, “It’s naive to expect any progress.”
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