On the last day of his marathon campaign for the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, exuding confidence about his third consecutive term in office, went to India’s southernmost tip, Kanyakumari, for his 45-hour-long meditation at the Vivekananda Rock Memorial. His popularity continues to be high, with credibility remaining virtually intact. Although voters were largely unenthused about the election, which was attributed to a general mood in favor of status quo, they did not appear to be cross with the PM.
His main rival Rahul Gandhi — who managed to set a narrative against various odds, forcing the formidable BJP to react — exhorted Congress workers at the end of his long, spirited campaign to be optimistic about the poll outcome. “I want to say with confidence to the brave lion workers of Congress that the INDIA alliance government is going to be formed,” he claimed.
Rahul may not have delivered many electoral wins for his party but his supporters and associates have maintained that he is their only “bulwark” against PM Modi, arguing that a victory of the Opposition would be crucial for the country’s democracy.
The BJP started its campaign on a high note, but soon saw the wobbly INDIA bloc showing surprising signs of resilience amid a buzz about an “undercurrent” against the incumbent regime.
A crowd of BJP supporters at PM Modi’s rally in Delhi’s Dwarka. (Express photo by Tashi Tobgyal)
Whether Modi would succeed in his “400 paar mission” or if such a perceived “undercurrent” had some impact on polling will be known on Tuesday, when the counting of votes will take place. All major exit polls projected a resounding victory for the BJP-led NDA, predicting that the BJP itself would better its 2019 tally of 303 seats. The projections by some of them like India-Today-My Axis and Today’s Chanakya even took the NDA tally to 400 seats.
The ruling coalition’s campaign had rarely seen such a drastic swing that it underwent this time – from showcasing its economic achievements and welfare schemes in the beginning to shifting to a narrow social agenda. The INDIA alliance was initially in disarray but soon got its act together to fight back. This election also saw some of the Opposition parties, such as the Congress and AAP, taking diametrically opposite positions in different battlegrounds, openly sealing seat-sharing deals in some states and taking on each other in other states.
While the BJP’s high-voltage, polarizing campaign united the Opposition, the ruling party entirely banked on PM Modi – reflecting its limitations as an organization despite having been established as a gigantic, well-oiled election machinery. Even in states like Uttar Pradesh where the BJP has a popular Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, the party was overshadowed by Modi in canvassing. In other states, the party used Modi to neutralize its internal discontents, alliance contradictions or local anti-incumbency.
PM Modi, 73, has notched up a record number of outreach events during the campaign – 206, which included public rallies and road shows. He has also given 80 interviews during this period. Rahul Gandhi held 107 poll events. While the BJP has 441 candidates in the fray, the Congress, which has formed electoral pacts with its INDIA partners, has contested 328 seats, which marked its lowest-ever tally in the Lok Sabha polls.
While Modi was a panacea for all kinds of problems in the BJP’s state units, helping the party project a confident face, these chinks in its armor fueled the Opposition’s campaign. This was seen as a key reason that led to Rahul managing to set the Opposition’s poll agenda.
Some of the actions taken by the central dispensation amid the polls seemed to have helped the Opposition. The arrests of chief ministers Hemant Soren and Arvind Kejriwal in separate cases related to their respective states further galvanized the Opposition and brought more cohesiveness in their joint campaigning. Modi’s “400 paar” slogan, aimed to keep the morale of the BJP cadre high, was used by the INDIA grouping to whip up a campaign alleging that armed with such a huge mandate the BJP would change the Constitution and undermine the reservation regime. The “400 paar” was used by the Opposition to amplify apprehensions among some sections, especially Dalits, against the BJP.
The Opposition’s pitch centered on the “washing machine” theme – a swipe at the BJP over its alleged moves to induct “tainted” leaders from other parties and give them clean chit – appeared to have caught on the imagination of the people on the ground, at least in conversations in towns and villages across the country .
The BJP’s bid to induct a number of such leaders against whom it had earlier raised corruption charges, such as Ajit Pawar and Ashok Chavan among others, besides the inclusion of the JD(S) and the TDP in the NDA fold were also used by the Opposition to take the sting, at least to some extent, out of two major campaign points of PM Modi – the graft issue and parivarvad (dynasty politics).
Modi’s appeal may help the BJP overcome various negative factors, propelling it to an impressive tally for a third term in power. Or, the Opposition may have managed to dent some of the BJP’s strongholds. Still, the road ahead is not likely to be a smooth affair for both the camps. The BJP, the largest political party with a massive footprint across the country, has to not only explore fresh strategies to keep the party’s expanding flock united and disciplined but would also have to redefine its relationship with its ideological parent RSS. The Opposition would have to present a more credible alternative, returning to the drawing board with a renewed imagination.
Click here for real-time updates on the Lok Sabha 2024 Exit Poll results