On the night of Wednesday, September 25 to Thursday, September 26, shortly after midnight, China conducted an intercontinental ballistic missile test in the Pacific that is considered to be the first in decades. Even though it only carried a dummy warhead − as is customary in this type of exercise − the test provoked a number of reactions from Indo-Pacific countries, as the missile launched from the Hainan peninsula flew over Japan before crashing into the sea 11,700 kilometers further away, not far from French Polynesia.

If this is not the first time Beijing has carried out tests of this type, “China usually conducts them on its own territory, because it has the space,” said Héloïse Fayet, a specialist in deterrence issues and researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). Japan was indignant that it had not been “warned” about this maneuver. Australia demanded “an explanation” from Beijing, while New Zealand described the test-fire as “unwelcome and concerning.”

In a terse statement, China’s Defense Ministry confined itself to announcing that “this launch is part of the Rocket Force’s routine annual training program.” “It complies with international law and practice, and is not aimed at any specific country or target,” it added while welcoming the fact that the missile fell “accurately into expected sea areas.”

The transparency surrounding − or not − the test launches and nuclear capabilities of the nuclear-armed powers has been a matter of critical communication, where every word is weighed carefully. This test fire “likely speaks to China’s ongoing nuclear modernization manifesting in new requirements for testing,” Ankit Panda, a leading researcher on the subject and member of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Agence France-Presse.

“It’s a message being sent to Washington,” said Marc Julienne, director of IFRI’s Asia Center, “as the missile being tested passed not far from the island of Guam. This launch demonstrates to China’s competitors that its missile force is fully operational and credible, as are its nuclear deterrent capabilities.” With its current arsenal, China can already reach US territory and targets in the Indo-Pacific.

Major upheaval in the Chinese armed forces

This test has come at the end of a period marked by major upheavals within the Chinese armed forces, against a backdrop of corruption and operational shortcomings. In 2023, President Xi Jinping abruptly replaced the two top commanders of the Rocket Force. In June of this year, the previous two defense ministers, Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe, who were in office between 2021 and 2023, were even ousted from the Communist Party (CCP).

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