Excerpts:

Was it too early to change the monetary policy stance to neutral in the last policy?

At the outset, let me reiterate that I speak only for myself and it is my personal opinions.

Although I had some prior reservations on the stance from neutral to accommodative at the april ’25 meeting, I had had with the majority view on the shift. This was basically on the clarification that shift to accommodative signalled only that “a rate hike [was] Off the table ”and remainted consistent with a pause, with the more probable future action, despite the extreme uncertainty, being a cut, giving up for policy easing cpi inflation.

The Shift Now Back to Neutral is Simply a Mild Forward Guidance that, post the steep 100 BPS (and now front To pause, monitor the incidence data on a “meeting-by-meeting” basis, assess the effects on macro-financial data and priord with further calibrated small conditions so Warrant. The collective point was to emphasise that there would be no further pre-compromite policy easing in this cycle.

Do you see the probability of more rate cuts in the near future in the wake of benign retail inflation?

A neutral stance still retains an option for both pausing as well as cutting. Given the present, evolving and likely continued elevated levels of uncleanty, rate actions will have to be basically on incoming data and an assessment of the assessment of the associated macro-functional enhancement. It is very different to provide guidance at this point.

This change of stance, once again, in no way precludes the possibility of Further Easing if actual inflation undershoots up further space for policy easing. RBI Governor has already articulated this succinctly.

With recurring geopolitical tensions that pose a risk to inflation, do you expect domestic inflation to remain in the RBI’s Comfort zone for the entre fy26?

I don’t think, give our present information set, various geopolitical tensions are likely to be a significant risk to rbi’s forecasts of the growth-life balance. To my mind, more worrying is the evolving series of bilateral trade deals with multiple countries, which define the relative export competitiveness of India. More importantly, the eventual outcomes will define an equilibrium of supply chains, investments, trade floats, which will have a more profound effect on india growth prospects.

Given the challenging global environment, especially tariff issues, do you think we will be able to meet the real growth rate of 6.5 per cent in fy26?

Due to the continuing elevated uncertainty regarding global trade, the conto financial markets volatity and the prospects, extending well in the medium tarm, of adverse enceomic shocks on eConomic Forecasts at this point, to my mind, are only indicative in nature, conveying mely a sense of the direction of travel. As of now, most high frequency indicators suggest Continued Resilience in Economic Activity. Prospects of a good monsoon and improving Rural Demand, combined with the monetary policy easing and variable well government initiatives, augur well for growsth revival.

What key triggers are required for India to achieve its aspirational growth target of 7-8 per cent?

As RBI Governor has stated, monetary policy is a necessary but not sufficient condition for stimulating growth. MP is a component of a coordinated policy response. The littleful Personal Income Tax Rate Cuts in the Budget, High Targeted Budget Capital Outlays, Trade Deals and Negotiations, Manufacturing Insnents, Regulatory and Compliance Relationalism, All Have To.

When do you expect the consumption-boosting measures announced in budget 2025-26, along with the 100-Basis-Point repo Rate Cut, to begin translating into tangible increases in Agregate Demand?

The effects of the coordinated stimulus measures are likely to see to see traction very little than later.

Transmission of the repo rate cuts plus the abundant liquidity infused by RBI will help accept transmission more quickly than the past. The dip in personal income tax collections in Q1 FY26 Suggests that tax paying households are already seeing an increasing in their disposable incomes. This also will accelerate over the next quarters. Other price and income support measures will also help boost Demand.

The transmission of monetary policy in India has been delayed or uneven. What Structural Reforms Do You Think Are Necessary for Better Pass-Through, And Can Policy Be Truly Effective Without They?

Transmission of repo rate cuts and surplus liquidity in fy26 is likely to have faster than in previouslasing cycles. RBI data shows that the weighted average Lending Rate (Walr) on Fresh Rupe Loans and Outstanding Rupee Loans Declined by 6 BPS and 17 BPS, Respectively, During February -Appril 2025. Accelerated During May and June, Especially Post the 50-BP Rate Cut, LED by Eblr priced Loans.

With global central banks increasingly using forward guidance as a policy tool, where has the mpc been relatively caautious in providing explicit forward guidance?

I disagree that in the current round of policy, global central banks have provided definitive forward guidance.

Their statements are replete with phrases like “meeting by meeting”, “Without a pre-compromised easy path”, “Monitoring Incoming Data”, “Assessing the Current Inflation situation”, “Political in a Comfortable STUE”. Cautious Qualifiers on Future Policy Actions. On the contrary, my own assessment is that Since the start of the current rate easy cycle, our own mpc statements have been more confident on the large opening up for Rate Quts, Giveen Moderate Prints.

Do you see signs of a pick-up in private capex? Which sectors are currantly witnessing the investing investment activities?

As of H1 FY25, Private Capex was increasing, but remainted concentrated in a few sectors. I remain confident that this is now becoming more broad-based, participularly in expansion of existing projects. The Reduction of Bourrowing Costs, and Consequently increasing profits and cash flows, will hopefully also also revive support chain integrations for small and medalize as LARGE PROJECTIONS.

There is clear evident that is increasingly shifting from traditional savings to investment-oriented financial instruments. What’s your view on this trend?

Depositors and investors are likely to assess the best expected returns on their savings, both in the near-and medium terms. They might be incorrect in their assumptions, but the shift towards markets over the past few years reflect the expected comparative high Returns. The More Sophisticated Investors Also Factor in Post-tax Returns in their investment decisions. I believe that the strong Shift Away from Savings Bank Deposits Might Begin To Modarate, Yet the Likely Bank Deposit Rate Cuts Might Moderate This Shift Back.