Ambassador Jose Manuel Romualdez spoke to the Financial Times in an interview on June 25 about these tensions. “You have several countries, major powers that have large arsenals of nuclear power.” He said a small incident could trigger a wider conflict, giving the example of the First World War.

What is the conflict between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea?

Countries such as China, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei Darussalam have long been making competing claims over parts of the South China Sea. For China and the Philippines, an important part of their equation is Sierra Madre — a World War II-era ship.

In the 1990s, the Philippines decided to bring this ship to the Second Thomas Shoal, a part of the mostly uninhabited Spratly Islands. A few years ago, China had laid claims on the nearby Mischief Reef.

Zoomed out map of South China Sea. (via Wikimedia Commons)
Zoomed in map showing the Second Thomas Shoal and the Philippines highlighted in green. (via Wikimedia Commons)

The Philippines’ placement of the ship was deliberate, to further its territorial claims. Since then, it has sent smaller boats to the ship for repairs and sending supplies to the crew onboard.

A recent analysis by The Washington Postbased on ship-tracking data and videos, found that “Chinese coast guard and militia ships have repeatedly swarmed and collided with Philippine resupply vessels”.

China has demanded the ship’s removal — something the Philippines has rejected. Today, the ship is largely dilapidated and rusting. However, for the Philippines, its removal would risk weakening its claims over the islands and Chinese presence being established.

What is the battle over the Spratly Islands?

All countries bordering the sea have certain rights to access marine resources. An exclusive economic zone (EEZ) is an area of ​​the ocean extending 200 nautical miles (370 km) beyond a nation’s territorial sea (12 nautical miles or 12 miles or 22 km from the coast).

Within this area, a coastal nation has jurisdiction over both living and nonliving resources, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

For decades, countries in the region have extended overlapping claims on the South China Sea, claiming ownership over islands located there – such as the Spratly Islands and the Paracel Islands. Along with issues over sovereignty, the rich oil and gas reserves in the region and its rich fishing waters have also encouraged these claims.

According to the Associated Press, the disputes “gradually escalated under former Philippine President Benigno Aquino III and culminated in 2012 when China took effective control of the disputed Scarborough Shoal after a tense standoff.”

The following year, Xi Jinping became the Chinese President. Under his rule, China has assumed a hardened stance on territorial claims and attempted aggressive posturing. It has claimed 90% of the South China Sea.

In 2016, an international tribunal in The Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines by noting China’s activities in the dispute. Although the decision did not award sovereignty to any party, it said, “certain sea areas are within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines, because those areas are not overlapped by any possible entitlement of China”.

It also described China’s construction of artificial islands with helipads and buildings as “incompatible with the obligations on a State during dispute resolution proceedings, insofar as China has inflicted irreparable harm to the marine environment, built a large artificial island in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.” , and destroyed evidence of the natural condition of features in the South China Sea that formed part of the Parties’ dispute.”

China rejected the ruling.

What has the US response been?

Since 2022, under the presidency of Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr, the Philippines has also struck back against Chinese actions. In March, the Philippines summoned China’s deputy chief of mission in response to its naval forces’ “aggressive actions” against a resupply mission.

The US, which regards the Philippines as an important strategic ally, also voiced its support. In May 2023, the two countries also agreed on new guidelines for a defense treaty from 1951.

It originally said the parties recognized “that an armed attack in the Pacific Area on either of the Parties would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and each party agrees that it will act to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes.”

Pentagon said in 2023: “The guidelines reaffirm that an armed attack in the Pacific, including anywhere in the South China Sea, on either of their public vessels, aircraft, or armed forces – which includes their Coast Guards – would invoke mutual defense commitments under Articles IV and V of the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.”

This year too, when Marcos Jr met US President Joe Biden during a visit in early April, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Washington stood with Manila against “coercion.” Romualdez also referred to it, saying, “I don’t think. . . China should just simply dismiss [the mutual defence treaty] as something that is not serious, because it is serious.”

This is an updated version of an explainer first published in April 2024.