During his first term in office (2017-2022), President Emmanuel Macron’s absolute majority in the Assemblée Nationale gave him free rein to pursue his policies. Then, with only a relative majority since 2022, he was forced to negotiate with other political parties.

Now, by dissolving the Assemblée Nationale after the far-right Rassemblement National’s (RN) victory in the June 9 European elections and calling snap elections, he risks losing much of his capacity for legislative action. The first round of elections on Sunday, June 30 saw his coalition come in third place, with only around 21% of the vote.

In this two-minute video, Le Monde explains the implications of the two most likely scenarios after the second and final round of elections on July 7. First, that one of the two leading blocs, the far-right RN and the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire alliance, attains their hoped-for absolute majority, which would result in a cohabitation government where Macron would have to share power with an opposition PM. Second, that no party obtains a majority.