Blinded by a certain arrogance, European powers have often shown polite indifference to the Baltic states’ warnings of the Russian threat, despite the fact that history and geography make these countries invaluable sources of information on Moscow. This is why the opinion of the intelligence agencies of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia is so important at a time when the conflict in Ukraine is being reshaped by the rapprochement between Russia and the United States. In their view, the current move toward peace negotiations conceals a major risk: Vladimir Putin’s regime is using the opportunity to prepare for a possible confrontation with NATO, even if it wishes to avoid it.

On February 17, in Latvia, the Constitution Protection Bureau (Satversmes aizsardzības birojs; SAB), the national security council, expressed, through its director Egils Zviedris, that “Russia’s apparent willingness to conclude a ceasefire does not amount to a real interest in ending the war.” According to Riga, “Moscow simply needs time to reconstitute its forces for a much broader attack on Ukraine or even NATO.” A Baltic state of 1.9 million residents, 35% of whom are Russian-speaking, bordering Russia and Belarus, Latvia has known what the Kremlin’s threat means ever since it threw off the Soviet yoke in 1990, before joining the European Union (EU) and NATO in 2004.

You have 72.49% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.