Five-day weather forecasts, updated every hour, are now available at the level of gram panchayats — the first major step towards localized forecasting across the country.

The initiative was formally launched by Panchayati Raj Minister Rajiv Ranjan Singh and MoS (Independent Charge), Ministry of Science & Technology and Ministry of Earth Sciences, Dr Jitendra Singh, on Thursday (October 24) evening.

What is the initiative?

The initiative, Gram Panchayat-Level Weather Forecasting, is a joint program of the Panchayati Raj Ministry, India Meteorological Department (IMD)and the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

According to the Panchayati Raj Ministry, the initiative is aimed at “empowering rural communities and enhancing disaster preparedness at the grassroots, and will benefit farmers and villagers across the country”. It will “strengthen grassroots governance and promote sustainable agricultural practices, making rural populations more climate-resilient and better equipped to tackle environmental challenges”, the Ministry said.

What will be forecast, and where will the forecasts be available?

Hourly forecasts will be available on the e-GramSwaraj and Gram Manchitra portals, and the Meri Panchayat app. e-GramSwaraj is already operational.

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Users can see data on the current temperature, wind speed, cloud cover (in percentage), rainfall, and relative humidity at the level of gram panchayats; Five-day forecasts of minimum and maximum temperatures, rainfall, cloud cover, wind direction, and wind speed, and an overall weather forecast.

How will the public benefit from the forecasts?

In the most direct way, this information will help farmers to better plan activities including sowing, irrigation, harvesting, etc.

In a statement, the Panchayati Raj Ministry underlined the importance of microforecasts in the context of intensifying climate change.

“As weather patterns become increasingly unpredictable, the introduction of weather forecasting at the Gram Panchayat level will serve as a crucial tool in safeguarding agricultural livelihoods and enhancing rural preparedness against natural disasters,” the Ministry said.

“Gram Panchayats will receive daily updates on temperature, rainfall, wind speed, and cloud cover, empowering them to make critical decisions in agriculture, such as planning sowing, irrigation, and harvesting activities,” it said.

Why does localized forecasting matter?

Despite the significant advances made in forecasting weather, the science of forecasting has inherent uncertainties.

The more precise a forecast — in terms of the spatial spread or time-window for the event — the greater the uncertainty. Also, the earlier the forecast, the less precise it is likely to be.

It is usually easier to predict large systems that are spread over large geographical areas — such as the Indian monsoon, or a cyclone that develops over the Bay of Bengal, or a heat wave covering several states. But sudden, localized events — like a cloudburst — are more difficult to predict.

Localized weather forecasts can help even small communities of farmers plan their economic activities with greater confidence. There are 2.55 lakh village panchayats across the country, with resident populations of a few thousand on average.

The IMD has developed the system of localized weather forecasting based on gram panchayat boundaries data provided by the Panchayati Raj Ministry.

How accurate are India’s localized weather forecasting capabilities?

As of now, weather forecasting is available at the district and block levels.

Over the years, IMD has worked on focusing its forecasts more and more narrowly. It currently has the ability to forecast weather events over a 12 km x 12 km area, and has been trying out experimental forecasts for 3 km x 3 km grids, with the eventual objective of making hyper-local forecasts for 1 km x 1 km areas. .

Localized forecasts are critical to deal with climate change-induced unpredictability in weather systems.

Officials said the Panchayati Raj Ministry is organizing a training workshop on “Weather Forecasts at the Gram Panchayat Level”, which will be attended by more than 200 participants, including elected representatives of panchayati raj institutions and state panchayati raj officials.

The training session will equip panchayat representatives and functionaries with the knowledge and skills to effectively utilize weather forecasting tools and resources at the grassroots level, and thus empower them to make informed decisions and enhance climate resilience in their communities, the officials said.