“I had the mandate, but the mandamus of the court went in Deuba’s favor,” Nepal’s then Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli had said in his farewell speech in July of 2021, after the Supreme Court’s constitutional bench ruled that President Bidya Devi Bhandari’s dissolution of the House of Representatives, recommended by Prime Minister Oli, was unlawful.
Now, in July of 2024, Nepali Congress (NC) chairman Sher Bahadur Deuba is in favor of Oli, chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), making him set to return as the Prime Minister of Nepal. for a fourth stint. And, their first victory as allies comes as current PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ lost the vote of confidence in Parliament on Friday.
It was during a secret meeting in the beginning of the monthwhen Deuba, 78, and Oli, 72, head of the two biggest parties, had decided to form a coalition government, initially under the leadership of Oli, which will be headed by Deuba after 22 months.
Who is KP Sharma Oli?
Oli, a veteran Nepali communist politician, has had a tumultuous political career marked by his nationalist rhetoric and clashes with neighboring India. Oli has served as the Prime Minister of Nepal on two occasions, from 2015-2016 and 2018-2021, before being ousted by the Supreme Court in a controversial ruling.
Born in 1952 in eastern Nepal, Oli dropped out of school and was jailed at 22 for the murder of a farmer, Dharma Prasad Dhakal.
Oli’s political career began quite early at the age of 12, when he moved to Jhapa with the help of Communist leader Ramnath Dahal. By this time, Oli was already influenced by the philosophies of Marx and Lenin, and by 1966, he had entered the realm of Communist politics. In 1970, Oli joined the Communist Party at 18 and was soon arrested, spending 14 years in prison. Although he rarely discusses his imprisonment, those close to him say it profoundly shaped him. Oli was released in the mid-1980s after receiving a royal pardon.
In 1971, Oli assumed leadership of the Jhapa rebellion, a cornerstone moment in the Nepali Communist movement. The Jhapa rebellion marked a significant shift in the Communist movement in Nepal, from its ideological stance to armed revolt. During this period, Oli spent several months behind bars in different parts of the country.
In the 1990s, Oli gained popularity for his efforts in the democratic movement that brought down the Panchayat regime. Over the next few years, he became a key figure in Nepali politics and an important leader in the Communist party. In 2015, he was elected Prime Minister after winning 338 out of 597 votes. However, in July 2016, Oli was forced to resign after the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist-Centre) withdrew its support and he lost a no-confidence motion in Parliament.
As Prime Minister, Oli took a hardline stance against India, particularly during the 2015 Nepal blockade, which he blamed on Indian interference. He also strengthened ties with China and updated Nepal’s map to include disputed territories with Indiafurther straining relations with the southern neighbor.
Seen as the face of “Nepali nationalism”, Oli’s nationalist rhetoric and confrontational approach towards critics and opponents earned him both praise and criticism. While his supporters saw him as a champion of Nepali sovereignty, his detractors accused him of undermining democratic institutions and failing to deliver on economic growth and development.
His popularity further grew when the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (UML), in a pre-poll alliance with the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist-Centre) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda, achieved a two-thirds majority in the 2018 polls. This alliance led to the historic merger of the two parties into the Nepal Communist Party, with Oli and Prachanda co-chairing and agreeing to share the prime ministerial term. Oli’s tenure saw ambitious promises like “Samriddha Nepal, Sukhi Nepali”, but was marred by unmet expectations and centralization of power, including bringing investigative agencies under the Prime Minister’s Office. His reluctance to honor the power-sharing agreement with Prachanda and preferential treatment of loyalists led to internal party conflicts, resulting in Prachanda’s withdrawal of support and the subsequent split of the alliance.
Oli’s grip on power further weakened when he abruptly dissolved Parliament on December 20, 2020, citing obstruction in fulfilling his promises, despite constitutional restrictions against such a move. The Supreme Court nullified this dissolution, reinstating Parliament, but Oli continued to face criticism for avoiding parliamentary sessions and ruling by ordinance. Following a failed vote of confidence in May 2021, he was reappointed as Prime Minister under Article 76(3) as none of the opposition parties could form a majority government or stake their claim within the provided time frame, the President dissolved the House of Representatives. at midnight on May 22, 2021 and albeit Oli as a minority prime minister. Consequently, the Oli government became an interim government until new elections were held from November 12 to 19, 2021..
This action was challenged, and the Supreme Court on 12 July 2021, not only set aside the dissolution but also annulled Oli’s appointment, directing the appointment of Sher Bahadur Deuba as Prime Minister.
After the 2022 elections, which left the NC as the largest party, followed by the CPN-UML in second place, with the Maoist Center party coming in third. Chairperson of CPN-Maoist Center Pushpa Kamal Dahal asserted his claim to the prime ministerial post. However, the NC, holding the majority in Parliament, refused to accept him as the new Prime Minister. Subsequently, Dahal sought support from the CPN-UML and the newly emerged Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) to bolster his candidacy and Dahal was appointed the Prime Minister, shifting Oli in the role of King maker.
However, in a shift of strategy in March 2023, Dahal agreed to support NC leader Ram Chandra Poudel for the presidency, leading to the formation of a coalition between the NC, Maoist party, and two smaller parties. This move pushed the Oli’s CPN-UML into the opposition.
Nevertheless, after just one year, internal tensions and failed promises strained the NC-Maoist coalition, prompting the Maoists to revival of the coalition ties with the UML. Negotiations eventually resulted in Dahal and Oli reconciling to form a coalition, wary of diluting communist influence.
Now, in a new turn, this coalition ended up making Oli all set to step into Prachanda’s shoes, marking a new chapter in the Himalayan nation, where political stability has remained elusive and has had 13 different governments since 2008, when the centuries-old monarchy was abolished and Nepal turned into a Republic.