Irrespective of the final numbers, the going is likely to get bumpier for the BJD, as the BJP grows in strength. As for the Congress, a party that ruled the state for over 40 years, its struggle to stay relevant will continue.

Elections to the Assembly and Lok Sabha seats in Odisha were stretched over four phases, from May 13 to June 1.

Here are the five things to look out for:

BJD’s numbers

An erstwhile ally of the BJP, the BJD has managed to retain good relations with the Narendra Modi government at the Center despite being technically in the Opposition. This is primarily due to BJD chief Naveen Patnaik’s cordial relations with the BJP’s top brass, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, but also because of its numbers in both Houses of Parliament. While the BJD won 20 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 and 12 in 2019, it also has nine members in the Rajya Sabha, making it an influential bloc.

Given the bitterness of the 2024 election fight, when the BJP went after Naveen Patnaik and his confidant VK Pandian personally, a weaker BJD will have few bargaining power left at the Centre. In that scenario, the BJP can be expected to move in for the kill, with Odisha one of the few states which remain out of its reach.

The BJD’s best bet would be a repeat of 2019, when even as the BJP saw a big jump in the Lok Sabha seats, this did not convert into an equal rise in the Assembly.

Naveen Patnaik’s own victory margins would be significant. To check the BJP’s growth in western Odisha, where the party is relatively strong, the BJD repeated its 2019 strategy of fielding Patnaik from a seat in the region – Kantabanji under the Balangir Lok Sabha constituency – along with his traditional bastion Hinjili.

In 2019, Patnaik had won from Hinjili by around 70% votes, and the second seat, Bijepur under Bargarh Lok Sabha seat, by 60.3% of the votes. But unlike Bijepur in 2019, Kantabaji saw a good triangular fight this time – between Patnaik, sitting Congress MLA Santosh Singh Saluja and the BJP’s Laxman Bag, who lost in 2019 by just 128 votes.

VK Pandian’s future

The Tamil Nadu-born former IAS officer, long a confidant of Patnaik, made a formal plunge into politics just ahead of the elections. With an ailing Patnaik curtailing his public engagements, Pandian drove the BJD’s campaign this time, ignoring a BJP campaign revolving entirely around him.

While a sixth straight win for the BJD will make Patnaik India’s longest-serving CM, Pandian will be the real man of the match, for what he has done for the BJD in the past one year, including touring all the 147 Assembly segments.

VK Pandian at an election rally in Ganjam. (Express photo by Sujit Bisoyi)

Sources close to Pandian said the BJD remained confident of winning three-fourth majority (110 seats) in the Vidhan Sabha.

However, if the BJP makes big gains in the Assembly polls, Pandian’s position will come under pressure. Notwithstanding Patnaik’s recent clarification that the former bureaucrat is not his anointed political successor, he is considered the BJD’s de facto No. 2, and wields a lot of control over the party organization.

Congress’s prospects

By all accounts, the party’s existential crisis is likely to worsen. In the 2019 Assembly polls, the Congress had been pushed to third position, with just 16.3% vote share, while the number of its MLAs had gone down to nine. If the party faces another humiliating defeat, it may be reduced to a “signboard” party.

However, the Congress central leadership made no real effort to revive in Odisha, so much so that its candidates struggled for funds. The grand old party was ultimately limited to “token contests” in most Assembly and Lok Sabha seats.

Insiders believe the party may also face a setback in its sole bastion – the Koraput-Balangir-Kalahandi region – because of a lack of effort.

For former PCC presidents Jayadev Jena and Niranjan Patnaik, contesting from Anandapur and Bhandaripokhari Lok Sabha seats, respectively, a defeat may end their careers. A win or lose will also decide the fate of Odisha Congress president Sarat Pattanayak, who is contesting from the Nuapada Assembly seat.

The Sambalpur, Berhampur Lok Sabha seat fights

One of the most keenly watched contests of this election, Sambalpur saw Union Education Minister and BJP’s most prominent Odisha face, Dharmendra Pradhan, take on BJD organizational secretary and party no. 3 Pranab Prakash Das.

Having returned to the electoral battle in Odisha after a gap of 15 years, Pradhan banked heavily on the popularity of PM Modi in the seat, which had been bagged by the BJP’s Nitesh Ganga Deb last time. However, the BJD is confident that its organizational strength and loyal support base, especially of women and its welfare scheme beneficiaries, will help it win Sambalpur.

The Berhampur constituency, part of Patnaik’s native Ganjam district, is seen as a BJD bastion. The party will especially want to retain this as the BJP has fielded from here former Patnaik confidant Pradeep Panigrahy, who was expelled from the BJD in 2020 for ‘anti-people’ activities. Panigrahy’s fallout with Pandian is believed to have been the reason behind his expulsion.

However, Panigrahy, a three-time MLA from Gopalpur, is known to have a good grip on the nitty-gritty of Ganjam’s local politics. PM Modi pitched in to campaign for him.

All eyes on Aparajita Sarangi

A former IAS officer who joined the BJP in November 2018, she was named the party’s candidate from Bhubaneswar in the 2019 polls. Despite the BJP having no organizational presence in the region, Sarangi defeated the BJD candidate, former Mumbai police commissioner Arup Patnaik, to bag the seat. Her reputation from her civil servant days as the Bhubaneswar municipal commissioner and district collector of Khurda, under which the Bhubaneswar Lok Sabha seat falls, helped her spring a surprise, even though the BJD won six of the seven Assembly seats in the simultaneous state polls in 2019.

This time, to defeat Sarangi, the BJD roped in Manmath Routray, the son of six-time Congress MLA from Jatni, Suresh Routray.