The ground shook under Narendra Modi’s feet in New Delhi on Tuesday, June 4. India’s strongman, who has ruled unchallenged for 10 years, controlling almost all the country’s institutions, finds himself having to negotiate hard with regional leaders to stay in power. His party, the powerful Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), did come out on top in India’s 18th general election, but, for the first time since 2014, it did not, on its own, secure an outright majority.
Like a steamroller, the BJP, the world’s largest political party with 180 million members, crushed everything in its path. It won only 240 seats, whereas the majority is set at 272, leaving it short by 30. It can achieve this with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP – it has a total of 292 elected members – but this is the subject of much negotiation. The opposition, united around the Indian National Congress, has made a remarkable comeback, winning 234 seats, and could persuade two key men to join it and thus reverse the balance of power. Such a scenario is not the most likely, but neither is it totally out of the question.
These two kingmakers are regional chiefs, political veterans who hold some 30 seats in their hands. They changed their alliance on the occasion of these legislative elections. Poached by the BJP, they joined Modi. Without them, the ruling party would have been defeated.
Could this recent betrayal prove fragile? Bihar’s Nitish Kumar and Andhra Pradesh’s Chandrababu Naidu are expected, in reality, to choose the camp that offers the highest bid. The National Congress Party, which has come a long way, may have little interest in playing this game. Coalitions will be unstable. The old independence movement was due to hold talks with its allies on June 5.
Despite the uncertainties and his mediocre performance, Modi proclaimed his victory “as historic,” hailing the “immense confidence” of the electorate. In front of his supporters gathered at the BJP headquarters in New Delhi, he promised “a new chapter of big decisions” for the years to come. “This is Modi’s guarantee,” he asserted, speaking of himself in the third person, as has become his custom. “Today is a glorious day (…) the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is going to form the government for the third time,” he added.
63 seats lost in five years
The myth of Modi’s invincibility has been seriously dented. The prime minister has suffered the biggest setback of his career, losing 63 seats in five years. His campaign, entirely focused on himself, had no breath, no momentum, no new ideas. The country no longer rallies around him.
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