Tour de France director Christian Prudhomme would like the poster for the 2024 Tour de France to resemble a deck of cards. That’s how he has long hoped the 111th edition, which sets off on Saturday, June 29, from Florence (Italy) will play out. Dominated by four aces: Dane Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike), Slovenians Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Emirates) and Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe), and finally Belgian Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quick Step).
But the start of the season has reshuffled the deck, and the poker game now resembles minchiate, a version of tarot invented in Florence during the glorious reign of the Medici, a poem on cardboard, rich in intrigue, where there are 40 trump cards, menacing by their names: the Pope and Hope rub shoulders with the Hunchback, the Fool and the Hanged Man.
There’s been very little to read or predict in the peloton since April 4, the date of what could read as a prologue to the Tour de France. Until then, a duel seemed to be taking shape, as in 2023, between Vingegaard, with a slight advantage, and Pogacar, with Evenepoel and Roglic lying in ambush. This hierarchy collapsed that day in a peloton crash on the Tour of the Basque Country. All of the favorites were severely injured, with the exception of Pogacar, who didn’t take part. And while this doesn’t mean that the Tour de France 2024 will be considerably more open, the forces at play are now riddled with weaknesses, or potential weaknesses, as the case may be, to reach the unprecedented finish in Nice – and not Paris, due to the Olympic Games – on July 29.
Tadej Pogacar, target number one
Everything points to a return to victory for this inveterate cyclist, who is promising he will “have a lot of fun.” With two Tours de France already under his belt (2020 and 2021), 25-year-old Slovenian Pogacar crushed the recent Giro d’Italia. Six stage wins, a 10-minute lead over the second-placed rider, and the impression that he could have done even better.
For a normal rider, this extreme exertion of effort would be a cause for concern. But this young man who defies nature has recovered perfectly, according to those around him. The early stages of the race – Sunday’s hilly finish in Bologna, Tuesday’s ascent of the Galibier, etc. – may enable him to quickly don the yellow jersey. The 111th edition’s favorite for overall victory is also the public’s favorite. His main problem will be the risk of crashing. The Basque episode on April 4 reminded all cycling champions of their vulnerabilities; and all scenarios, even those that seem written in advance, of their absolute fragility.
Jonas Vingegaard, after the fall
The Dane opened the season in the same style as Pogacar. He took the same cool delight in repeated attacks, carried out far from the finish, attacking relentlessly and without respite; while his power level seemed superior to Pogacar’s, in the duel the two men engaged in from a distance. The crash on April 4 (he suffered from a collapsed lung, bone fractures) shook a lot of certainties for 27-year-old Vingegaard, winner of the last two Tour de France. “I’m already happy to be at the start,” he declared, as if to refute the expectations placed in him. His recent six-hour training rides around Tignes (Savoie) leave little doubt as to his competitiveness. Can he beat Pogacar? His physiological advantage is blunted, and not just by his fall. In theory, the Vingegaard of the Tour 2023 would have lost out to the Pogacar of the Giro 2024. At the very least, the Danish climber, who turned up on Thursday with his wife and daughter, can redress the balance with his team, also accident-prone, but more homogeneous and disciplined than Team UAE.
Primoz Roglic, the old-fashioned way
Primoz Roglic often lacks something impalpable and indispensable in a Tour de France, which doesn’t tolerate bodies at only 99 %. The near-winner in 2020 – he was knocked down the day before the finish by his compatriot Pogacar – is, at 34, the oldest of the favorites, but it’s above all his racing style that seems to have taken a hit: a train of team-mates to suffocate the competition, an ascendancy taken in the time trial, short attacks in the mountain finishes (when his rivals dare to launch themselves with 60 kilometers to go). The Slovenian rocker, a discreet jovial, is playing one of the last cards of his career this year. He will be relying on a robust team, Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe, which he joined this winter, leaving Vingegaard’s home and thus gaining his share of freedom.
Remco Evenepoel, child king
While France has been waiting for a successor to Bernard Hinault since 1985, Belgium has been waiting since 1976 and Lucien Van Impe. That’s why there are hopes piling high about 24-year-old Remco Evenepoel and his Tour debut. Yet the prodigy from Brabant has already been a professional for five seasons. A specialist in long-distance breakaways (like Pogacar and Vingegaard) and a master of the time trial, he often has a “day without” during the three-week event, which makes him more of a stage chaser, a contender for the Top 5 and the best young rider’s white jersey. The fact remains, however, that some of the public will be discovering a new player in the race: one who is divisive with the words he doesn’t mince, and whose moods, generosity and outbursts of blood are capable of awakening some rather languid jousting.
Lenny Martinez, the little French asset
He’s the “promise” of French cycling. Grandson of Mariano Martinez, former polka-dot jersey; son of Miguel, Olympic mountain bike champion in 2000; he, Lenny. At the age of 20, this gifted mountain biker is the best climber in France since Thibaut Pinot. Will Martinez follow in his elder’s unlucky golden footsteps? No, since he has decided to leave Groupama-FDJ in the winter of 2025, probably to join Bahrain-Victorious. Because of this transfer, and in order not to destabilize David Gaudu, another leader, the team didn’t want to commit Martinez to the Tour. But now he’s the strongest rider on the team. Diplomatic, he says he’s aiming for stage wins, but the top 10 remains within his grasp.